This & Dat
Just a little of This and a little of Dat!
Occasionally, I need to clean out my one-off idea box which builds up over time as I investigate other thoughts and issues. Here are a few of the most interesting “This & Dats” from the last few weeks. I hope you find something intriguing and THANKS as always for becoming a subscriber and reading my missives. Always much appreciated!
1. Capital Goods Per Job Declines in April?
As demonstrated in chart 1, bull markets since 1990 have been primarily about investment in the labor force. Since 1992, the stock market generally rises provided the level of real core capital goods investment per job increases. In April, real core capital goods orders declined by -1.7% -- the second largest monthly drop during the entire bull market and its biggest decline since February 2023. Declines in this ratio have recently been rare — since April 2025, when Trump announced his tariff program, real capital goods investment per job has only declined two other months. During most of the contemporary bull market, stocks have been bolstered by a persistent and dramatic rise in the level of real investment per job. Indeed, this ratio reached a new all-time record high in March. Although one month does not make a trend, with inflation probably running hotter in the coming few months, it seems likely that April could be the first of several months when real investment per job declines. Could a string of declines in this important ratio prove problematic for the stock market?
