Jim - Can you now integrate the over 1 million of foreign born workers that have been exported by Trump. We’ve gone from over a 13 million import a few years ago to a 1 million export. That must affect your aggregate numbers. Plus look under the hood and see how its the les productive government workers who are getting the RIF while private sector is increasing.
One thing I'm missing here: should data change in the ways you lay out here, would this not change the direction of fed interest rate hikes currently priced in (and/or direction of Fed policy)
Thank you for the rigorous analytical work you put into your Substack. I have two points for your consideration:
Could you quantify your confidence level regarding your economic and market outlook? My read is that you are in the "high confidence" or "top quartile" range that the US economy is heading for a slow patch, resulting in a weaker market. Is this accurate?
How are you factoring in geopolitical risks, specifically Iran's emerging power and its desire to drive the US from Western Asia? You might find Dr. Pape's Substack ("Escalation Trap") valuable to integrate into your models. He has been spot on regarding the conflict and predicts Iran will attempt to inflict maximal economic pain prior to the midterms. He models a path to $6/gallon gasoline in the US. The media is under-covering this evolving situation; if Dr. Pape is correct, the US will be blindsided by an oil price shock in the coming weeks.
Jim - Can you now integrate the over 1 million of foreign born workers that have been exported by Trump. We’ve gone from over a 13 million import a few years ago to a 1 million export. That must affect your aggregate numbers. Plus look under the hood and see how its the les productive government workers who are getting the RIF while private sector is increasing.
One thing I'm missing here: should data change in the ways you lay out here, would this not change the direction of fed interest rate hikes currently priced in (and/or direction of Fed policy)
I really like your clear expectations you lay out in this piece.
Hello Jim,
Thank you for the rigorous analytical work you put into your Substack. I have two points for your consideration:
Could you quantify your confidence level regarding your economic and market outlook? My read is that you are in the "high confidence" or "top quartile" range that the US economy is heading for a slow patch, resulting in a weaker market. Is this accurate?
How are you factoring in geopolitical risks, specifically Iran's emerging power and its desire to drive the US from Western Asia? You might find Dr. Pape's Substack ("Escalation Trap") valuable to integrate into your models. He has been spot on regarding the conflict and predicts Iran will attempt to inflict maximal economic pain prior to the midterms. He models a path to $6/gallon gasoline in the US. The media is under-covering this evolving situation; if Dr. Pape is correct, the US will be blindsided by an oil price shock in the coming weeks.
Regards,
Tom